Our own sac-eats tipped me to the Bee’s coverage of the home invasion robbery in Arden Park that a commenter brought my attention to the other day. (Ain’t the internet great?) Though the victim in this instance escaped with only a head injury (from a gunshot wound!) the Bee piece is notable for some of the details that back up what I’ve been saying.
Sacramento Police Sgt. Terrell Marshall said officers saw a spike in home-invasion robberies in May but said most of them stemmed from drug thefts, disputes over property or fights within families.
“I don’t want people in the community to have fear that they’ll be the next victim, because statistically speaking, that’s not true,” Marshall said.
“Statistically speaking it’s possible” and “statistically speaking it’s not possible” are both truthtful statements, wouldn’t you agree? Also, don’t we have a little more on our side than statistics? You know, those guys who go around in blue suits and drive black and white cars? Aren’t they involved in keeping us from being victimized? I wonder why this sentiment is being voiced by the cops at this point in time. Could it be because they realize they have an increasingly brazen and violent criminal population on their hands and they need to do some damage control by downplaying the risk? It sure seems to me like the cops are exhibiting a little more CYA than usual these days.
I’m also interested in the quote from the neighbor, Michelle Flicht-McDonough: “I think we all try to think [that robbers target their victims rather than attack at random] so we’re not so frightened.” I have a hunch that this sentiment is felt by many of us–that it is not simply the raw crime numbers that scare us, as the Chief thinks, but rather the effect that the numbers have on the possibility that we will become victims ourselves. It is precisely the randomness of being victimized that scares us, since it is the one thing out of our control. We can move to the country, we can lock our doors, we can double and triple check the locks, but we can’t control who the bad guys pick on. I suppose Sgt. Marshall is as scared of the rest of us, because sometimes the only way we can not obsessively worry about crime is to trust in the statistics.
I also have a question about the Bee’s take on the incident: “For reasons that are not clear, one of the gunmen shot 26-year-old Payam Joe Nejad in the head with a small-caliber gun.” (Emphasis mine.) Let’s see, the gunman had a gun, and had entered Nejad’s house to burglarize it. How hard do you imagine it is to come up with a reason? How many possibilities do you think the cops are looking at? Do you mean that the exact causes of violent behavior are not fully known scientifically? Are you trying to insinuate something about the victim, since that’s what the Police Chief wants you to do? I’ll take you down as well, SacBee.
I completely agree with you that
“It is precisely the randomness of being victimized that scares us, since it is the one thing out of our control.”
It’s the same reason people are still scared to get onto airplanes and why they still play the lottery. The odds are bad, but sometimes, your numbers are up.
I think the PD should be paying more attention to the statistics to find out how they should be changing their enforcement to better serve the community. They shouldn’t be downplaying those statistics. Otherwise, why bother counting at all?
And “I don’t want people in the community to have fear that they’ll be the next victim, because statistically speaking, that’s not true,” Marshall said.” Is not an accurate statement.
“Statistically speaking, it isn’t likely,” would be more accurate.
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Great point about the “statistically speaking” sentence, It seems like that was just a poor choice of words–he probably meant “isn’t likely” or something to that effect.
Tough job, Sgt. Marshall’s…if i was asked my opinion on a matter in front of cameras i’m sure i would say stupid things occasionally…
https://sacrag.com/motorist/
Yep, definitely only occasionally…
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Man, the link to you as “The Motorist” is A riot!!!
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thanks Argus. I appear to have been beaten on the head severely that day…
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